This paper evaluates the demand for broad money (M2) in The Gambia for January 1988-June 2007. There appears to be a long-run relationship for demand for real M2, but the relationship is not stable. Exogenous output shocks, financial innovation, changes in income velocity, and inadequate data...

We assess the competitiveness of Mauritius in recent years using two approaches. First, we estimate the difference between the equilibrium and the actual real exchange rate using four methods: the macroeconomic balance approach, the single-equation fundamentals approach, the capital-enhanced...

Inflation in low-income countries is often high and volatile, driven by external shocks. In addition, inflation in fragile states is affected by highly volatile domestic factors that complicate monetary policy's ability to deliver price stability. We estimate the drivers of inflation in Guinea...

This paper studies the potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) through quantifying potential long-term economic costs. The paper considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world...

Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles...

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. VOLATILITY AND PREDICTABILITY OF AID: WHAT EXACTLY IS THE ISSUE? -- III. DATA AND MEASUREMENT ISSUES -- IV. MEASURING THE VARIABILITY OF AID: THREE APPROACHES -- V. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- REFERENCES.