Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. FORECAST DESIGN AND ORGANIZATION -- III. ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST -- IV …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …

We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future … inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to … explore econometrically whether distributional characteristics help predict future inflation. We find that the shape of the …

This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline … information. Focusing on core inflation forecast errors in 2021, four factors provide a potential ex post explanation: a stronger … different governments in 2020 correlates positively with core inflation forecast errors in advanced economies. This result hints …

The COVID-19 pandemic altered consumption patterns significantly in a short period of time. However, official inflation … Germany, we document how consumption patterns changed and we quantify the resulting inflation bias. We find that consumers … experienced a higher level of inflation at the beginning of the pandemic than what a fixed-weight inflation (or the official …

-fledged inflation targeting, (vi) implicit price stability anchor, and (vii) inflation targeting lite. This taxonomy captures the … financial and economic development and recent inflation history. …

Modifications to Japan's monetary policy framework will be needed as positive inflation resumes because the current … an "anti-deflation" objective to an inflation objective, complemented by a shift of monetary operations from a …

some of the area's institutional features, which may impart considerable persistence to area-wide inflation, caution … against shifting to conventional inflation targeting. But the time series evidence also seems to point to a relatively loose … connection between variations in nominal money growth and inflation in the short to medium run. As a consequence, effective …

This paper analyzes the monetary policy response to rising inflation in emerging and developing countries associated … with the food and oil price shocks in 2007 and the first half of 2008. It reviews inflation developments in a sample of … of inflation; provides a synthesis of policy responses taken against the background of the conflicting objectives and …