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The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area

Lombardi, Marco - 2009

The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677494

The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts, and the Eurozone Crisis

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier - 2023

Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, ranging from roughly 0.5% (Ireland) to a whopping 43% (Greece) of 2010 output … during the Eurozone crisis. We propose a model to analyze and understand bailouts in a monetary union, and the large observed … bailout was to prevent an exit from the eurozone and possible contagion. Bailouts to avoid sovereign default were …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059348

Breaking the Impediments to Budgetary Reforms

Mody, Ashoka - 2008

Under what conditions are budget institutions likely to be strengthened? We find that fiscal deficits do not help in focusing policymakers on undertaking reforms. To the contrary, the larger the deficit, the lower is the likelihood of reforms. Large deficits apparently imply strong claims on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677567

Accrual Budgeting and Fiscal Policy

Robinson, Marc - 2009

Can an accrual budgeting system-a system in which budgetary spending authorizations to line ministries are formulated in accrual terms-serve the needs of good fiscal policy? If so, how must such a system be designed? What are the practical challenges which may arise in implementing sound fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677737

Fiscal Sustainability

Tanner, Evan - 2013

This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012689867

Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries.

Caceres, Carlos - 2012

The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012690163

Fiscal Policy and the Government Balance Sheet in China

Lam, Waikei - 2023

In this paper, we present the most comprehensive estimates of China's government balance sheet to date. Based on these estimates, we show how major shifts in fiscal policy over the last two decades have shaped the health of the public sector prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that, at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059248

Creating Sustainable Fiscal Space for Infrastructure : The Case of Tanzania

Ter-Minassian, Teresa - 2008

A common dilemma facing governments around the world is how to meet the sizeable fiscal costs of providing and maintaining infrastructure networks. Over the past decade, developed and developing countries have looked to fiscal rules, budgetary reforms, tax policy and administration measures,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014409074

Shared Problem, Shared Solution: Benefits from Fiscal-Monetary Interactions in the Euro Area

Beyer, Robert - 2023

This paper employs two established macroeconomic models to show that fiscal policy in the euro area can help monetary policy in reducing inflation. Specifically, a fiscal consolidation of 1 percent of GDP for two years and 0.5 percent in the third year across the euro area would ease the policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059251

U.S. and Euro Area Monetary and Fiscal Interactions During the Pandemic: A Structural Analysis

Hodge, Andrew - 2022

This paper employs a two-country New Keynesian DSGE model to assess the macroeconomic impact of the changes in monetary policy frameworks and the fiscal support in the U.S. and euro area during the pandemic. Moving from a previous target of "below, but close to 2 percent" to a formal symmetric...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015060056

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