Showing 1 - 10 of 662
This paper looks at the empirical record whether big infrastructure and public capital drives have succeeded in accelerating economic growth in low-income countries. It looks at big long-lasting drives in public capital spending, as these were arguably clear and exogenous policy decisions. On...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012690573
Over the past decade, China's growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports … has widened substantially. Several economies within China's supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment …-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in investment in China. This note quantifies potential global spillovers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677549
We present a stylized real model of the Chinese economy with the objective of explaining two features: (1) domestic production is highly competitive in the sense that an accumulation of capital that raises the marginal product of labor elicits increases in employment and output rather than only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677576
This paper gauges the potential effects on employment of rebalancing China's exportoriented growth model toward … existing and new services as well as reorienting the production of tradable goods toward domestic markets. In China's case … paper shows that while rebalancing China's growth toward a domestic-demand-led economy would likely raise aggregate e …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677831
This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677800
After earlier success, growth performance in most Caribbean countries has been disappointing since the early 1990s. With slower growth, output has fallen behind that of relevant comparator countries. This paper analyzes the growth experience of the Caribbean countries from a cross country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009659894
This paper examines whether there is a threshold above which financial development no longer has a positive effect on economic growth. We use different empirical approaches to show that there can indeed be ""too much"" finance. In particular, our results suggest that finance starts having a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618521
This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55-56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618534
We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618586
The paper reviews and draws lessons from the experience of fast growing economies including a sub-set of these termed High Growth Economies (HGEs) with a decadal rate of over 7 per cent. It then reviews the history of the Indian growth acceleration following the reforms of the 1990s and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009620975