Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE BASIC MODEL SETTING -- III. MODEL 1: A SIMPLE MODEL WITH NON-RANDOM DEFAULT PROBABILITIES -- IV. INTRODUCING THE POISSON APPROXIMATION -- V. MODEL 2: THE MODEL WITH KNOWN PROBABILITIES REVISITED -- VI. MODEL 3: THE MODEL WITH RANDOM DEFAULT...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. KEY FEATURES OF THE GLOBAL FISCAL MODEL -- III. CALIBRATING THE MODEL -- IV. THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT DEBT -- V. GOVERNMENT SPENDING SHOCKS AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION -- VI. TAX DISTORTIONS AND THE BENEFITS OF TAX REFORM -- VII. THE EFFECTS...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. MONETARY POLICY ANALYSIS AT THE IMF -- III. MACROECONOMIC MODELING -- IV. BUILDING THE MODEL -- V. FORECASTING AND POLICY ANALYSIS46 -- VI. AN EXAMPLE -- VII. CAVEATS AND FUTURE WORK -- VIII. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE GLOBAL AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT -- III. Balance of Payments Impact -- IV. FISCAL IMPACT -- V. LOOKING FORWARD-POSSIBLE VULNERABILITIES -- VI. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR DEMAND FOR IMF RESOURCES -- APPENDIX I-COMPARISON TO OIL SHOCKS OF THE...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. BRIEF REVIEW OF RESEARCH ON EL SALVADOR'S RECEIPTS OF REMITTANCES -- III. STYLIZED FACTS OF EL SALVADOR'S ECONOMY, 1995-2004 -- IV. MODEL SPECIFICATION AND DATA ISSUES -- V. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE: TRANSMISSION MECHANISM -- VI. CONCLUSIONS AND ECONOMIC...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE MODEL AND CALIBRATION -- III. MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF FISCAL CONSOLIDATION -- IV. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND FISCAL POLICIES IN THE REST OF THE WORLD -- V. COMBINING FISCAL ADJUSTMENT AND TAX REFORM -- VI. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. SOME STYLIZED FACTS ON RESERVE REQUIREMENTS AND EXCESS LIQUIDITY IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES -- III. MEASUREMENT OF EXCESS LIQUIDITY -- IV. EXCESS BANK LIQUIDITY AND MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM -- V. SUMMARY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- References.

The paper lays out an analytical framework for understanding crises in emerging markets based on examination of stock variables in the aggregate balance sheet of a country and the balance sheets of its main sectors (assets and liabilities). It focuses on the risks created by maturity, currency,...