We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions in Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism, in aggregate and across sectors and regions. Tariff...

Curbing carbon emissions to meet the targets set in the Paris Agreement requires the deployment of low carbon technologies (LCTs) at a global scale. This paper assesses the role of climate and trade policies in fostering LCT diffusion through trade. Leveraging a comprehensive database of climate...

Industrial policies pursued in many developing countries in the 1950s-1970s largely failed while the industrial policies of the Asian Miracles succeeded. We argue that a key factor of success is industrial policy with export orientation in contrast to import substitution. Exporting encouraged...

Economic theory suggests that countries' tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed...

This paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, sectors more open to international trade are more volatile. Second, trade is...

An increasing number of tropical timber producing nations have enacted bans on export of logs. Proponents argue that a log export ban is a second-best policy tool for addressing environmental externalities; it also creates more jobs and improves scale efficiencies domestically. Theoretical...

We revisit the question of the quantitative benefits of WTO trade agreements in a setup that is non-standard from the traditional trade policy point of view. We show that in a New Keynesian model, unilateral trade liberalization reduces welfare due to terms-of-trade deterioration, creating an...