Industrial policies pursued in many developing countries in the 1950s-1970s largely failed while the industrial policies of the Asian Miracles succeeded. We argue that a key factor of success is industrial policy with export orientation in contrast to import substitution. Exporting encouraged...

Uganda has registered one of the most impressive economic turnarounds of recent decades. The amelioration of conflict and wide ranging economic reforms kick-started rapid economic growth that has now been sustained for some 20 years. But there is a strong sense in policy making circles that...

Structural transformation depends not only on how much countries export but also on what they export and with whom they trade. This paper breaks new ground in analyzing India's exports by the technological content, quality, sophistication, and complexity of the export basket. We identify five...

In the spirit of what is known as business cycle accounting, this paper finds that the investment wedge-the gap between household's rate of intertemporal substitution and the marginal product of capital-is large and quantitatively significant in explaining China's and India's growth. Specific...

India's financial sector has faced many challenges in recent decades, with a large, negative, and persistent credit to GDP gap since 2012. We examine how cyclical financial conditions affect GDP growth using a growth-at-risk (GaR) approach and analyze the link between bank balance sheets, credit...

We study the effects of a bank's engagement in trading. Traditional banking is relationship-based: not scalable, long-term oriented, with high implicit capital, and low risk (thanks to the law of large numbers). Trading is transactions-based: scalable, shortterm, capital constrained, and with...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. REFORMS IN TWO PILOT BANKS -- III. REFORMS IN OTHER BANKS AND DEPOSIT-TAKING INSTITUTIONS -- IV. CREDIT RISK AND BANK LENDING DECISIONS -- V. CONCLUSIONS AND ISSUES GOING FORWARD: CREATING THE INCENTIVES AND INFRASTRUCTURE FOR BANKS TO OPERATE...

The increased presence of foreign banks in a country's domestic banking system necessitates the development of effective cross-border prudential supervision where the consolidated supervision is the essential element. This paper presents foreign bank supervision in terms of division of...

This paper explains the continuing success of European cooperative banks through evolving comparative advantages. It points out that a cooperative is built around an intergenerational endowment without final owners, which creates particular governance challenges. Risks include the use of the...

A banking system module is incorporated into the Central Bank of Barbados's multisectoral macroeconomic forecasting model, and a medium-term forecast is generated for bank capitalization, profitability, liquidity and nonperforming loans. Stress tests are performed for the first year of the...