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Chronicle of a decline foretold : has China reached the Lewis Turning Point?
Das, Mitali; N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P. - 2013
China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009706770
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Pension Reforms in Japan.
Kashiwase, Kenichiro - 2012
This paper analyzes various reform options for Japan's public pension in light of large fiscal consolidation needs of …Cover -- Contents -- Abstract -- I. Introduction -- II. The Pension System and Past Reforms in Japan -- III. Pension … Contribution Rates -- D. Reducing Preferential Treatments -- IV. Conclusion -- Tables -- 1. Japan: Options to Reduce Government for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012690157
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Quantifying impact of aging population on fiscal space
Park, Seok Gil - 2012
This paper quantitatively investigates how population aging trend affects fiscal space measured as unused revenue generating capacity by utilizing a standard neoclassical growth model. A calibration exercise for G-7 countries shows that France, Germany and Italy suffer greater revenue impact...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618513
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Global Aging and Declining World Interest Rates
Hoffmaister, Alexander W. - 2008
How will the world-wide decline in real interest rates associated with global aging affect small open economies (SOEs) with aging populations? Lower interest rates will result in higher capital-labor ratios and increased wages; higher wages, in turn, will be passed on to pension benefits,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677583
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After the Crisis; Lower Consumption Growth But Narrower Global Imbalances?
Ohnsorge, Franziska; Mody, Ashoka - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
We estimate consumption dynamics in the G-7 economies, paying particular attention to the possibility of precautionary behavior in the face of uncertainty. We find that in the short run, continued income uncertainty will significantly dampen consumption growth. As such, consumption in the G-7...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008561067
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Tests of German Resilience
Bornhorst, Fabian; Mody, Ashoka - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142028
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Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse; Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?
Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
Sweden represents an archetypal welfare state economy, with extensive government safety nets. Some scholars have attributed a decline in its per capita income ranking since 1970 to "eurosclerosis" or sluggish growth caused by distortionary policies. This paper argues rather, that the permanent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605036
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Social Sector Reform in Transition Countries
Keller, Christian; Heller, Peter S. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2001
During the transition process, many existing social sector institutions and policies were significantly eroded and their underlying character changed. As a result, they often do not redistribute to the poorest, nor generally serve the role of facilitating economic change. Social sector reforms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264010
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Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging
Faruqee, Hamid; Tamirisa, Natalia T. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of population aging in a dynamic overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The model is calibrated to data for the Czech Republic, where population aging is proceeding at a pace comparable to that in other advanced countries in Europe....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264152
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The Path to Higher Growth; Does Revamping Japan’s Dual Labor Market Matter?
Aoyagi, Chie; Ganelli, Giovanni - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper argues that Japan’s excessive labor market duality can reduce Total Factor Productivity (TFP) due to a … employment protection between regular and non-regular workers would substantially reduce labor market duality in Japan. One …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242174