This paper identifies and quantifies the drivers of inflation dynamics in the three Baltic economies and assesses the … effectiveness of fiscal policy in fighting inflation. It also analyzes the macroeconomic impact of inflation on competitiveness by … focusing on the relationship between wages and productivity in the tradeable sector. The results reveal that inflation in the …

Central banks in major industrialized economies were slow to react to the surge in inflation that began in early 2021 … war in Ukraine. We investigate the consequences of policy delay in responding to inflation shocks. First, using a simple … three-period model, we show how policy delay worsens inflation outcomes, but can mitigate or even reverse the output decline …

This paper studies how and why inflation expectations have changed since the emergence of Covid-19. Using micro …-year and five-ten year horizons has widened since the surge of inflation during 2021, along with the mean. Persistently high … adaptive learning is able to mimic the change in inflation expectations over time for different demographic groups. The …

We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future … inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to … explore econometrically whether distributional characteristics help predict future inflation. We find that the shape of the …

The surge in energy prices in 2022 has been a defining factor behind the increase in euro area inflation. We assess the … to mute the effects of the increase in energy prices and to lower inflation. Overall, we find that these unconventional … measures reduced euro area inflation by 1 to 2 percentage points in 2022 and may avoid an undershoot later on. When …

In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that … the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which … influence the expected inflation distribution through disagreement, level shift and ambiguity. Linking these functional shocks …

The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring … tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi … data for the United States, we find that a positive inflation expectations shock is deflationary and contractionary …

times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously …

economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged … inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …

What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as … climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country … investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters, influence inflation and economic growth in a …