building a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model linked to global climate and a catastrophe risk model specifically for … the Philippines. Our model shows that the impact of extremely rare typhoons on GDP could already be systemic and worsen …, partly thanks to the strength of Philippines' banks and economy before the COVID crisis. However, more work is needed before …

This paper identifies and quantifies the drivers of inflation dynamics in the three Baltic economies and assesses the … effectiveness of fiscal policy in fighting inflation. It also analyzes the macroeconomic impact of inflation on competitiveness by … focusing on the relationship between wages and productivity in the tradeable sector. The results reveal that inflation in the …

Central banks in major industrialized economies were slow to react to the surge in inflation that began in early 2021 … war in Ukraine. We investigate the consequences of policy delay in responding to inflation shocks. First, using a simple … three-period model, we show how policy delay worsens inflation outcomes, but can mitigate or even reverse the output decline …

This paper studies how and why inflation expectations have changed since the emergence of Covid-19. Using micro …-year and five-ten year horizons has widened since the surge of inflation during 2021, along with the mean. Persistently high … adaptive learning is able to mimic the change in inflation expectations over time for different demographic groups. The …

We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future … inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to … explore econometrically whether distributional characteristics help predict future inflation. We find that the shape of the …

The surge in energy prices in 2022 has been a defining factor behind the increase in euro area inflation. We assess the … to mute the effects of the increase in energy prices and to lower inflation. Overall, we find that these unconventional … measures reduced euro area inflation by 1 to 2 percentage points in 2022 and may avoid an undershoot later on. When …

In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that … the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which … influence the expected inflation distribution through disagreement, level shift and ambiguity. Linking these functional shocks …

The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring … tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi … data for the United States, we find that a positive inflation expectations shock is deflationary and contractionary …

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and … by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during … indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for …

The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) and its operational independence changed over time in line with the evolution of the … the issue of the autonomy of monetary policy in Jordan given the influence of world interest rates. Alt …