This paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, sectors more open to international trade are more volatile. Second, trade is...

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. IMF ARRANGEMENTS FROM 1970 TO 2004 -- III. INDICATORS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT -- IV. METHODOLOGY -- V. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- VI. ROBUSTNESS -- VII. PREDICTING ACCESS LEVELS -- VIII. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- APPENDIX I. BACKGROUND ON IMF...

This paper explores the concept of global liquidity, its measurement and macro-financial importance. We construct two sets of indicators for global liquidity: a quantity series distinguishing between core and noncore liabilities of financial intermediatires and a corresponding price series....

Although cross-border bank lending has fallen sharply since the crisis, extending our bank ownershipdatabase from 1995-2009 up to 2013 shows only limited retrenchment in foreign bank presence. Whilebanks from OECD countries reduced their foreign presence (but still represent 89% of foreign bank...