Credit Default Swap spreads have been used as a leading indicator of distress. Default probabilities can be extracted from CDS spreads, but during distress it is important to take account of the stochastic nature of recovery value. The recent episodes of Landbanski, WAMU and Lehman illustrate...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. MACROECONOMIC-BASED MODELS -- III. CREDIT SCORING (OR ACCOUNTING-BASED) MODELS -- IV. RATINGS-BASED MODELS -- V. HYBRID MODELS -- VI. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. CDS VALUATION AND THE BASIS -- III. THE ROLE OF RECOVERY -- IV. DATA ANALYSIS -- V. IMPLIED RECOVERY VALUES UNDER NO ARBITRAGE -- VI. IMPLIED RECOVERY VALUES UNDER NO ARBITRAGE WITH CTD -- VII. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.

We update the widely used banking crises database by Laeven and Valencia (2008, 2010) with new information on recent and ongoing crises, including updated information on policy responses and outcomes (i.e. fiscal costs, output losses, and increases in public debt). We also update our dating of...

Successful implementation of macroprudential policy is contingent on the ability to identify and estimate systemic risk in real time. In this paper, systemic risk is defined as the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis and this conditional probability is modeled in a fixed effect...

This paper presents a new database on the timing of systemic banking crises and policy responses to resolve them. The database covers the universe of systemic banking crises for the period 1970-2007, with detailed data on crisis containment and resolution policies for 42 crisis episodes, and...

This paper proposes an integrated crisis management and resolution framework for the EU's single banking market. It comprises a European Resolution Authority (ERA), armed with the mandate and the tools to deal cost-effectively with failing systemic cross-border banks, and is designed to address...

This paper investigates whether banking crises are associated with declines in bilateral exports. We first develop a simple open economy model in which banking crises translate into negative liquidity shocks, leading to collapses in exports through supply-side and demand-side shocks. We then...

This paper explores factors behind Canadian banks' relative resilience in the ongoing credit turmoil. We identify two main causes: a higher share of depository funding (vs. wholesale funding) in liabilities, and a number of regulatory and structural factors in the Canadian market that reduced...

Many empirical studies of banking crises have employed ""banking crisis"" (BC) indicators constructedusing primarily information on government actions undertaken in response to bank distress. Weformulate a simple theoretical model of a banking industry which we use to identify and...