Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

This paper formulated a short-run model, with an explicit role for monetary policy, for analyzing world oil and gas markets. The model described carefully the parameters of these markets and their vulnerability to business cycles. Estimates showed that short-run demand for oil and gas was price-...

Expansionary monetary policies in key industrial countries and sharply depreciating U.S. dollar exchange rate sent commodities prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003-2007. Food prices rose to alarming levels threatening malnutrition and food riots. In contrast, consumer price indices,...

Intro -- Content -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. OIL PRICE VOLATILITY -- III. THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF CRUDE OIL -- IV. ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY IN THE OIL MARKETS -- V. SOLUTION OF THE SEM -- VI. CONCLUSIONS -- APPENDIX -- REFERENCES.

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for three stock indices. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used for estimating Bayesian parameters and filtering volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was...

Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years. Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium. An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying...

A model for world crude oil and natural gas markets is estimated. It confirms low price and high income elasticities of demand for both crude oil and natural gas, which explains the market power of oil producers and price volatility following shocks. The paper establishes a relationship between...

In a case study of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, this paper finds that bilateral real exchange rates revert to a long-term equilibrium in line with purchasing power parities, implying that these countries constitute an integrated trading zone, their markets are interdependent and...

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and oil prices within a world oil demand and supply model. Low price and high income elasticities of demand and rigid supply explain high price volatilities and producers' market power. Exchange and interest rates do influence oil...