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The Pacific Speed of Growth; How Fast Can It Be and What Determines It?
Yang, Yongzheng; Chen, Hong; Singh, Shiu raj; Singh, Baljeet - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This study aims to test within a relatively homogeneous group of small states what differentiates the growth performance of Pacific island countries (PICs) from their peers. We find that PICs are disadvantaged by distance and hampered by lower investment and exports compared with other small...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242206
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Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States?
Tumbarello, Patrizia; Cabezon, Ezequiel; Wu, Yiqun - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards relative to other small states due to their small populations, geographical isolation and dispersion, narrow export and production bases, exposure to shocks, and heavy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790232
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Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries
Caceres, Carlos; Medina, Leandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011123827
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After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
Gruss, Bertrand - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142049
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Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns
Krichene, Noureddine - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for … volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was consistent with both volatility clustering and mean reversion … specification improvements were always possible. The model corroborated stylized findings in volatility modeling and has potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826355
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Income and Democracy; Lipset's Law Revisited
Hoeffler, Anke; Bates, Robert H.; Fayad, Ghada - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
We revisit Lipset‘s law, which posits a positive and significant relationship between income and democracy. Using dynamic and heterogeneous panel data estimation techniques, we find a significant and negative relationship between income and democracy: higher/lower incomes per capita...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242229
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Understanding DSGE Filters in Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Andrle, Michal - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper introduces methods that allow analysts to (i) decompose the estimates of unobserved quantities into observed data, (ii) to better understand revision properties of the model, and (iii) to impose subjective prior constraints on path estimates of unobserved shocks in structural economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790303
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A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations; Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models
Barrionuevo, José M. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 1992
A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264063
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Crude Oil Prices; Trends and Forecast
Krichene, Noureddine - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825666
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Capital Inflows; Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses
Elekdag, Selim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Cardarelli, Roberto - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of, and policy responses to surges in private capital inflows across a large group of emerging and advanced economies. In particular, we identify 109 episodes of large net private capital inflows to 52 countries over 1987-2007. Episodes of large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825695