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This paper presents a model for Inflation Targeting under imperfect policy credibility. It modifies the conventional … model in three ways: an endogenous policy credibility process, by which monetary policy can gain or lose credibility over … time; non-linearities in the inflation equation and in the credibility generating process; and an explicit loss function …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677693
References to policy credibility, particularly with regard to fiscal policy, are ubiquitous in both economic literature …)-emerging markets joining a supranational entity that is generally considered to have higher policy credibility-provides a unique … experiment to assess the effects of credibility on sovereign credit. This paper examines the impact of EU accession on three key …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677845
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691119
We consider a moral hazard economy in banks and production to study how incentives for risk taking are affected by the quality of supervision. We show that low interest rates may generate excessive risk taking. Because of a pecuniary externality, the market equilibrium may not be optimal and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790384
This paper explores the causes of India's productivity surge around 1980, more than a decade before serious economic reforms were initiated. Trade liberalization, expansionary demand, a favorable external environment, and improved agricultural performance did not play a role. We find evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825610
We develop a multicountry model in which governments aim at excessive spending in order to serve the narrow interests of the group in power. This puts pressure on the monetary authorities to extract seigniorage, and thus affects the incentives countries would have to participate in a monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825633
This papers estimates the equilibrium exchange rate for Armenia using three different approaches: the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, and the external sustainability (ES) approach. All three approaches suggest that the dram was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825670
Does the choice of exchange rate regime affect the way an economy's adjustment to real shocks? Exploiting the randomness of natural shocks, this paper assesses empirically the often contrasting answers found in the theoretical literature. The evidence supports key themes in this literature, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825697
Facing electoral uncertainty, a government chooses its exchange regime in a trade-off among three incentives: (i) tying the hands of its opponent should it lose the election; (ii) facilitating its own future policy implementation should it win the election; and (iii) increasing its chance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825721
This paper summarizes the macroeconomic performance of the transition economies. We first review the initial conditions confronting these economies, the reform strategy that was proposed, and the associated controversies that arose a decade ago. We then account for the widely different outcomes,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825770