Existing economic indicators and indexes assess economic activity but no single indicator measures the general macro-economic performance of a nation, state, or region in a methodologically simple and intuitive way. This paper proposes a simple, yet informative metric called the Economic...

Fiscal impulse measures are used in the WEO and elsewhere to indicate the changing impact of the budget on the economy. Such measures are intended to provide more accurate indications of whether the budget is becoming more or less expansionary than would just observing moments in the actual...

This paper investigates the factors behind the significant improvement in Brazil's external accounts and wide fluctuations of the real exchange rate since the floating of the real in 1999. Particular attention is devoted to the strong appreciation of the real from 2003-05. Econometric estimates...

This paper analyzes the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial soundness indicators (FSIs) using a newly assembled panel dataset of FSIs for 96 countries covering the period 1998-2005. The analysis covers key macroeconomic indicators and FSIs of capital adequacy, asset quality...

Korea was one of the Asian economies hardest hit by the global financial crisis. Anticipating the downturn that would follow the episode of extreme financial stress, the Bank of Korea (BOK) let the exchange rate depreciate as capital flowed out, and preemptively cut the policy rate by 325 basis...

This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial health; (b) stress-tests as measures of the dynamics of responses of systemic risk...

Capital flows data from Balance of Payments statistics often lag 3-6 months, which renders timely surveillance and policy deliberation difficult. To address the tension, we propose two coincident composite indicators for capital flows that improve upon existing proxies. We find that the most...

This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data...

The IMF’s main uses of the International Comparison Program’s (ICP) estimates of purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are as an element of the formula used to help guide decisions on its members’ quotas and in the World Economic Outlook (WEO)....