surpluses without a fall in consumption, capital inflows should be used to increase future output. This paper tentatively finds … following consumption booms. It also shows that many recent large current account deficits have been predominantly the result of … consumption or non-productive investment booms. …

We estimate consumption dynamics in the G-7 economies, paying particular attention to the possibility of precautionary … consumption growth. As such, consumption in the G-7 economies is unlikely to be the engine that revives global growth. Differences … in the pace and timing of consumption moderation have implications for the evolution of global imbalances. With the U …