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inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990724
to credit. This finding, which is consistent with the model's prediction, indicates that because of the presence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605133
also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in beating a random walk in out-of-sample prediction. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263651
analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts …. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263972
Some recent studies suggest the possibility of estimating a stable aggregate demand-for-money relationship for the group of countries participating in the European Monetary System. These results are of particular relevance in connection with the task of setting policy targets for a European...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264074
This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825693
Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825754
This paper presents theoretical work linking money demand to the perceptions of households about the risk that domestic currency may become inconvertible or that it may be devalued. An empirical investigation of the size of this effect is carried out using both cross section data and then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826374
This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the … pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826587
We propose a model of the interbank money market with an explicit role for central bank intervention and periodic reserve requirements, and study the interaction of profit-maximizing banks with a central bank targeting interest rates at high frequency. The model yields predictions on biweekly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769266