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This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and … by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during … indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677800
money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677626
Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. TAXONOMY OF UNDERLYING INFLATION INDICATORS -- III. FEATURES OF THE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012690993
Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC -- III. SEASONAL … CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES -- IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION -- V. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- References -- Appendix …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691121
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618572
economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014409032
This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677838
We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677886
This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677496
Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. EVALUATING MISALIGNMENT ASSESSMENTS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMIES -- III. CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS OF THE FALL 2006 CGER ESTIMATES -- IV. CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- Appendix I. Pooled Regression Results -- Appendix II. Description of Diagnostic Statistics -- Appendix...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012682179