This paper uses vector autoregressions and impulse-response functions to construct a U.S. financial conditions index (FCI). Credit availability-proxied by survey results on lending standards-is an important driver of the business cycle, accounting for over 20 percent of the typical contribution...

This paper studies the potential for the export sector to play a more important role in promoting growth in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) through deeper intra-regional and global trade integration. CAPDR countries have enacted many free trade agreements and other...

This paper examines linkages across North America by estimating the size of spillovers from the major regions of the world-the United States, euro area, Japan, and the rest of the world-to Canada and Mexico, and decomposing the impact of these spillovers into trade, commodity price, and...

Central America experienced moderate growth during the last decade, including in the years leading up to the global financial crisis, but the rate of convergence toward advanced country income levels has still been slow. Moreover, forecasts imply that these trends will continue. What can be done...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. DATA AND METHODOLOGY -- III. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS -- IV. RESULTS ACROSS CANADIAN PROVINCES -- V. EXTENDING THE CANADIAN MODEL -- VI. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- Data Appendix.

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. GROWTH, SAVING, AND INVESTMENT IN AN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMY -- III. THE MEASUREMENT OF PRIVATE SAVING -- IV. CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE -- V. TIME-SERIES EVIDENCE FOR MEXICO -- VI. MEXICO'S SAVING: WHICH WAY DOES THE CAUSALITY GO? -- VII. CONCLUSIONS --...

This paper uses vector autoregressions and impulse-response functions to construct a U.S. financial conditions index (FCI). Credit availability—proxied by survey results on lending standards—is an important driver of the business cycle, accounting for over 20 percent of the typical...

This paper explores international bond spillovers using daily and intra-day data on yields on inflation-indexed bonds and associated inflation expectations for the United States, Australia, Canada, France, Sweden, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The analysis starts in 2002, by which point U.S....

This paper examines the impact of central bank communication on market expectations of monetary policy and long-term interest rates by comparing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) action dates when a policy statement was made to dates before statements were issued. Increased communication has...

A key question for U.S. policymakers is whether the recent strength in federal revenue is likely to continue. This question is addressed through an econometric analysis of the determinants of tax revenue, using time series that are adjusted for tax policy changes. The results suggest that growth...