We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VARmodel, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminatebetween supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile oftheir macroeconomic effects...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. POLITICAL AND SECURITY SITUATION -- III. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE SINCE 1970 -- IV. THE ROLE OF OIL IN CONGO -- V. NATURAL RESOURCES AND GROWTH -- VI. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH -- VII. REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. BACKGROUND -- III. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK -- IV. RESULTS AND SENSITIVITY TESTS -- V. EXTENSIONS -- VI. CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FUTURE RESEARCH AGENDA -- References.

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

This paper examines the impact of oil-related income, among other fundamentals, on the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and assessing alternative measures for the exchange rate, the...

Natural resource revenues are an increasingly important financing source for public investment in many developing economies. Investing volatile resource revenues, however, may subject an economy to macroeconomic instability. This paper applies to Angola the fiscal framework developed in Berg and...

This paper formulated a short-run model, with an explicit role for monetary policy, for analyzing world oil and gas markets. The model described carefully the parameters of these markets and their vulnerability to business cycles. Estimates showed that short-run demand for oil and gas was price-...

Public debt in the Middle East increased during the mid-1990s mainly because of fiscal expansions. It decreased in recent years, thanks to high oil revenue, economic growth, some primary non-oil fiscal adjustment, and debt relief. While countries in the Middle East appear to have adequately...

This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global...

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...