We show that US natural gas prices have decoupled from oil prices following substantial institutional and technological changes. We then examine how this interrelationship has evolved in Europe using data for Algeria, one of Europe’s key gas suppliers. Taking into account total gas...

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

This paper examines the impact of oil-related income, among other fundamentals, on the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and assessing alternative measures for the exchange rate, the...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. POLITICAL AND SECURITY SITUATION -- III. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE SINCE 1970 -- IV. THE ROLE OF OIL IN CONGO -- V. NATURAL RESOURCES AND GROWTH -- VI. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH -- VII. REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. BACKGROUND -- III. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK -- IV. RESULTS AND SENSITIVITY TESTS -- V. EXTENSIONS -- VI. CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FUTURE RESEARCH AGENDA -- References.

Natural resource revenues are an increasingly important financing source for public investment in many developing economies. Investing volatile resource revenues, however, may subject an economy to macroeconomic instability. This paper applies to Angola the fiscal framework developed in Berg and...

Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years. Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium. An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying...

Countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) experienced a credit boom-bust cycle in the last decade. This paper analyzes the roles of demand and supply factors in explaining this credit cycle. Our analysis first focuses on a large sample of bank-level data on credit growth for...

Laws governing the foreclosure process can have direct consequences on the costs of foreclosure and could therefore affect lending decisions. We exploit the heterogeneity in the judicial requirements across U.S. states to examine their impact on banks’ lending decisions in a sample of...