Showing 1 - 10 of 360
This paper analyzes developments in the structure of trade in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) during the transition decade, and finds that it changed less than in other transition economies. Trade openness of the CIS increased between 1993 and 1997, but has fallen to a lower-level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604992
This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely—for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826235
We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242185
We consider a moral hazard economy in banks and production to study how incentives for risk taking are affected by the quality of supervision. We show that low interest rates may generate excessive risk taking. Because of a pecuniary externality, the market equilibrium may not be optimal and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790384
To date, an operational measure of systemic risk capturing non-linear tail comovement between system-wide and individual bank returns has not yet been developed. This paper proposes an extension of the so-called CoVaR measure that captures the asymmetric response of the banking system to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142002
trade channels and small confidence spillovers, but we also consider scenarios where banks in all EU countries tighten …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242224
This paper analyzes the linkages between governance quality and country stress events. It focuses on two types of events: fiscal and political stress events, for which two innovative stress indicators are introduced. The results suggest that weaker governance quality is associated with a higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242318
This paper uses a set of routinely collected high-frequency data in low-income countries (LICs) to construct an aggregate and a comprehensive index of economic activity which could serve (i) as a measure of the direction of economic activity; and (ii) as a useful input in analyzing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790333
find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790361
This paper examines whether there is a threshold above which financial development no longer has a positive effect on economic growth. We use different empirical approaches to show that there can indeed be "too much" finance. In particular, our results suggest that finance starts having a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790393