This paper analyzes macroeconomic determinants of the foreign exchange risk premium in two Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The analysis is based on the stochastic discount factor methodology, which...

This paper compares the impact of shocks to U.S. interest rates and emerging market bond spreads on domestic interest rates and exchange rates across several emerging market economies with different exchange rate regimes. Consistent with conventional priors, the results indicate that interest...

The paper presents an N-country model with stock markets, in which a closed-form solution for the real exchange rate is derived. Risky asset prices and allocation of risky assets among countries are determined endogenously. Such a framework allows an analysis of how fundamental parameters, such...

This paper uses a DSGE model to examine whether including the exchange rate explicitly in the central bank's policy reaction function can improve macroeconomic performance. It is found that including an element of exchange rate smoothing in the policy reaction function is helpful both for...

Rapidly rising dollarization and numerous related financial crises in recent years have heightened the need for policy action. This paper contributes to the policy debate by presenting a common analytic framework that examines the roots of de facto financial dollarization under different...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY -- II. WHAT ARE RISK PREMIUMS ON THE DOLLAR AND HOW CAN WE MEASURE THEM? -- III. CAPITAL FLOWS AND RISK PREMIUMS -- IV. EXPLAINING RISK PREMIUM MOVEMENTS -- V. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- DATA AND REGRESSION METHODOLOGY -- References.

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...

We investigate the pricing of sovereign credit risk over the period 2008-2010 for selected advanced economies by examining two widely-used indicators: sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and relative asset swap (RAS) spreads. Cointegration analysis suggests the existence of an imperfect market...

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro...

This paper applies a state-space approach to estimate the implicit inflation target of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) since the adoption of the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework. The paper's findings are two. First, although the official inflation target range is 3.6 percent, in...