Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE NONACCELERATING INFLATION RATE OF FACTOR UTILIZATION -- III. FACTOR UTILIZATION IN RUSSIA -- A. Capacity Utilization -- B. Labor Utilization -- C. Estimating the Natural Rate -- IV. OUTPUT GAP ESTIMATES -- A. Trend Fitting and Statistical Filtering...

Emerging economies are characterized by higher consumption and real wage variability relative to output and a strongly countercyclical current account. A real business cycle model of a small open economy that embeds a Mortensen-Pissarides type of search-matching frictions and countercyclical...

News - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading...

The paper asks how state of the art DSGE models that account for the conditional response of hours following a positive neutral technology shock compare in a marginal likelihood race. To that end we construct and estimate several competing small-scale DSGE models that extend the standard real...

This paper investigates the determinants of private investment in Pakistan with special emphasis on the impact of government investment. Using annual data for the period 1973/74-1991/92, it is estimated that private investment was positively correlated to GDP growth, to credit extended to the...

This paper estimates the output gap in Russia using a utilization-adjusted production function approach, which we argue is preferable to traditional output gap methods. The approach amounts to (1) using available surveys to estimate the "natural rates" of capacity and labor utilization above...

This paper analyzes the link between FDI, corporate taxation, and corporate tax revenues. We find strong evidence that FDI in (out) flows are affected by tax regimes in the host (home) countries and FDI flows in turn affect the corporate tax base. Simulations of European Union (EU) harmonization...

Natural resource revenues provide a valuable source to finance public investment in developing countries, which frequently face borrowing constraints and tax revenue mobilization problems. This paper develops a dynamic stochastic small open economy model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of...

In this paper we present various techniques to estimate Sri Lanka’s potential output and output gap, including statistical and model-based approaches. Compared to conventional statistical filters that rely exclusively on information in a single series, the model-based approaches allow...

Simulations with the Fund’s GIMF model show that raising government savings in New Zealand permanently by 1 percent of GDP is likely to improve the current account balance by about ½ percent of GDP. The way government savings are achieved matters for GDP but little for the current...