This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within...

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...

We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve's survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante...

'Leaning against the wind' (LAW) with a higher monetary policy interest rate may have benefits in terms of lower real debt growth and associated lower probability of a financial crisis but has costs in terms of higher unemployment and lower inflation, importantly including a higher cost of a...

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

This paper discusses the use of interest rates as the operating target for monetary policy in Tunisia and the roadmap for establishing the other building blocks of an inflation targeting framework. It argues that strengthening the effectiveness of the current monetary policy framework will...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INTEREST RATES AND BUSINESS CYCLES -- III. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY MODEL WITH THE FINANCIAL ACCELERATOR -- IV. THE EFFECTS OF A 1 PERCENT U.S. INTEREST RATE HIKE -- V. A REPEAT OF THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET ROUT OF 1994? -- VI. WHAT ROLE FOR MONETARY POLICY? --...

The financial health of central banks and its relation to policy outcomes has recently been recognized as an important policy issue. While case study evidence clearly indicates that weak central bank finances can hamper effective policy implementation, the question of whether central bank...

The paper reviews the policy response of major central banks during the 2007-08 financial market turbulence and suggests that there is scope for convergence among central bank operational frameworks through the adoption of those elements that proved most instrumental in calming markets. These...