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Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts; Evidence from a Large International Panel
Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Loungani, Prakash; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242185
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Household production, services and monetary policy
Ngouana, Constant Lonkeng - 2012
A distinctive feature of market-provided services is that some of them have close substitutes at home. Households may therefore switch between consuming home and market services in response to changes in the real wage - the opportunity cost of working at home - and changes in the price of market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621655
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The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle
Matheson, Troy; Stavrev, Emil - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790401
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A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment
Ball, Laurence M.; Mazumder, Sandeep - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor … Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations … period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242402
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The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation
Stavrev, Emil - 2008
money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677626
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Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan
Moriyama, Kenji - 2008
This paper investigates inflation dynamics in Sudan using three different approaches: the single equation model, the structural vector-auto regression model and a vector error correction model. This is the first study in a low-income and a post-conflict country that uses these three separate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677638
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The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off at Low Inflation
Ricci, Luca Antonio - 2009
Wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities. Several interesting implications arise. First, a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve relates average unemployment to average wage inflation;...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677671
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Wage-Price Setting in New EU Member States
Goretti, Manuela - 2008
This paper analyzes wage- and price-setting relations in new EU member countries. Panel estimates indicate a strong and significant relationship between real wages and labor productivity, as well as evidence of wage pass-through to inflation. Terms of trade shocks do not feed through to real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677676
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The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited
Berger, Helge - 2008
Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. A Brief Guide Monetary Analysis in the ECB's Strategy and Its Evolution Since 1998 -- III. Survey of the Theoretical Debate -- IV. The Importance of Money for Inflation Forecasts -- V. Disaggregated Monetary Analysis -- VI. How Time Path Dependent Should the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012682180
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Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap : Is the Russian Economy Overheating?
Oomes, Nienke - 2006
Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE NONACCELERATING INFLATION RATE OF FACTOR UTILIZATION -- III. FACTOR UTILIZATION IN RUSSIA -- A. Capacity Utilization -- B. Labor Utilization -- C. Estimating the Natural Rate -- IV. OUTPUT GAP ESTIMATES -- A. Trend Fitting and Statistical Filtering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691060