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Russia's Regions; Income Volatility, Labor Mobility and Fiscal Policy
Kwon, Goohoon; Spilimbergo, Antonio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
Russia's regions are heavily exposed to regional income shocks because of an uneven distribution of natural resources and a Soviet legacy of heavily skewed regional specialization. Also, Russia has a limited mobility of labor and lacks fiscal instruments to deal with regional shocks. We assess...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263862
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The Perils of Tax Smoothing; Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output
Tanner, Evan; Carey, Kevin Joseph - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to … stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simulations confirm that such a … be to link the primary surplus not only to the debt ratio (like tax smoothing) but also to its volatility, thus …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264166
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The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback
Estevão, Marcello M.; Samaké, Issouf - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
for debt feedback effects. The estimation focuses on regions with scarce quarterly data (mostly low-income countries), and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010838008
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Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?
Erbil, Nese - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
This paper examines the cyclicality of fiscal behavior in 28 developing oil-producing countries (OPCs) during 1990-2009. After testing five fiscal measures - government expenditure, consumption, investment, non-oil revenue, and non-oil primary balance - and correcting for reverse causality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203530
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Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits
Kumhof, Michael; Laxton, Douglas - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
The effectiveness of recent fiscal stimulus packages significantly depends on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, fiscal deficits can have worrisome implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008460597
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Budget Consolidation; Short-Term Pain and Long-Term Gain
Laxton, Douglas; Mursula, Susanna; Clinton, Kevin; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
The paper evaluates the costs and benefits of fiscal consolidation using simulations based on the IMFs global DSGE model GIMF. Over the longer run, well-targeted permanent reductions in budget deficits lead to a considerable increase in both the growth rate and the level of output. The gains may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008560421
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DSGE Modeling At the Fund; Applications and Further Developments
Botman, Dennis P. J.; Rose, David; Laxton, Douglas; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007
Researchers in policymaking institutions have expended significant effort to develop a new generation of macro models with more rigorous microfoundations. This paper provides a summary of the applications of two of these models. The Global Economy Model is a quarterly model that features a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826064
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The Role for Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy in Singapore
Eskesen, Leif Lybecker - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
Singapore's policymakers have often used fiscal policy as a counter-cyclical tool. Empirical results based on a structural autoregression framework suggest that fiscal policy can be used for demand management, although the impact may be somewhat short lived. The short-lived impact could reflect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826280
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Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries; A "Fan-Chart" Approach
Celasun, Oya; Debrun, Xavier; Ostry, Jonathan David - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These … depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic … conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826339
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Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa; Facts and Factors
Yackovlev, Irene; Lledo, Victor Duarte; Gadenne, Lucie - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
in recent years after a period of sharp increase through the 1990s. Greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008497613