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Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties; Are Any Fit to Survive?
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Pascual, Antonio Garcia; Chinn, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity and the sticky-price monetary model. The models are estimated in first-difference...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263978
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Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments; How Well Have they Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements?
Lee, Jungjin; Abiad, Abdul; Kannan, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate issues (CGER) has been conducting exchange rate assessments as part of the surveillance process since 1997. This paper evaluates CGER assessments from 1997 to 2006, by comparing these to subsequent movements in real effective exchange rates (REER)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825774
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Effect of IMF Structural Adjustment Programson Expectations; The Case of Transition Economies
Imam, Patrick A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007
We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies, in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768769
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Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey
Chan-Lau, Jorge A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making institutions. The models are especially useful when the firms analyzed do not have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605119
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Financial innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis
Mendoza, Enrique G.; Boz, Emine - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
Uncertainty about the riskiness of new financial products was an important factor behind the U.S. credit crisis. We show that a boom-bust cycle in debt, asset prices and consumption characterizes the equilibrium dynamics of a model with a collateral constraint in which agents learn "by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008560424
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Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters; Challenges and Options
Keen, Michael; Freeman, Paul K.; Mani, Muthukumara - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
Natural disaster risk is emerging as an increasingly important constraint on economic development and poverty reduction. This paper first sets out the key stylized facts in the area-that the costs of disaster have been increasing, seem set to continue to increase, and bear especially heavily on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825906
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Debt Sustainability Under Catastrophic Risk; The Case for Government Budget Insurance
Cavallo, Eduardo A.; Borensztein, Eduardo; Valenzuela, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more … disaster-prone areas of the world, it has one of the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This paper examines the vulnerability … that vulnerability. The paper finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize's debt sustainability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599214
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How Big Are the Benefits of Economic Diversification? Evidence From Earthquakes
Ramcharan, Rodney - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
Economic activity is risky. Returns across economic sectors can be highly variable, potentially causing costly adjustments to consumption. However, when returns are imperfectly correlated across sectors and insurance is unavailable, diversification can reduce the economic impact of shocks....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599518
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Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean
Rasmussen, Tobias N. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
Each year natural disasters affect about 200 million people and cause about $50 billion in damage. This paper compares …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605190
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Natural Disasters; Mitigating Impact, Managing Risks
Laframboise, Nicole; Loko, Boileau - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
This paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters and presents the IMF’s role in assisting countries coping with natural catastrophes. Focusing on seven country cases, the paper describes the emergency financing, policy support, and technical assistance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242390