This paper analyzes the monetary policy framework in Kazakhstan. The authorities have been successful in containing inflation in the context of a managed exchange rate regime. Over the past two years, the central bank has taken steps to enhance its ability to regulate liquidity in the financial...

The fall in the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974 is often attributed to high rates of economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951....

The stylized fact that strong economic growth is usually accompanied with strong export growth leads many people to conclude that the export sector is the main driving force behind those episodes. The model in this paper, however, shows that the non-tradable sector may also generate high...

We develop a simple macroeconomic model that assesses the effects of higher foreign aid on output growth and other macroeconomic variables, including the real exchange rate. The model is easily tractable and requires estimation of only a few basic parameters. It takes into account the impact of...

This paper demonstrates that the Dutch disease need not materialize in low-income countries that can draw on their idle productive capacity to satisfy the aid-induced increased demand. Diagnoses on, and prognoses for, the Dutch disease should take into account country-specific circumstances to...

We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade...

Non-oil growth in the CFA oil exporting countries has been lackluster despite their great natural resource wealth. In this paper we study the key determinants of non-oil growth and explore to what extent these countries differ from countries with comparable levels of development that do not...

Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia’s growth differential has had on Australia. The simulation analysis, which replicates some key...

This paper examines the role of the exchange rate regime in explaining how emerging market economies fared in the recent global financial crisis, particularly in terms of output losses and growth resilience. After controlling for regime switches during the crisis, using alternative definitions...

We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting GDP growth and may be thus used as a leading indicator. Based on the FCI,...