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Xie, Danyang; Wang, Ping - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2002

This paper constructs an integrated framework to disentangle the underlying economic mechanism of industrial transformation. We consider three essential elements for the analysis: skill requirements, industry-wide spillovers, and degrees of consumption subsistence. We find that human and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604997

Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?

Balakrishnan, Ravi; Dao, Mai; Sole, Juan; Zook, Jeremy - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015

The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242381

Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels

Choi, Sangyup; Loungani, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015

We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242392

Trade, Growth, and Poverty; A Selective Survey

Berg, Andrew; Krueger, Anne O. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This survey of the recent literature asks: how important is trade policy for poverty reduction? We consider the effects of openness on poverty in two components: the effect of openness on average income growth, and the effect on distribution for a given growth rate. Evidence from a variety of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263804

Armenia; The Road to Sustained Rapid Growth-Cross-Country Evidence

Iradian, Garbis - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This study examines the growth determinants and the economic policy challenges that Armenia faces to sustain the rapid growth of the past two years. The paper also seeks to answer the following two questions: Why has Armenia performed relatively better than other transition economies? What are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263869

Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited; Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects

Papageorgiou, Chris; Henn, Christian; Eicher, Theo S. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263980

Does Trade and Technology Transmission Facilitate Inequality Convergence? An inquiry Into the Role of Technology in Reducing the Poverty of Nations

Das, Gouranga Gopal - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

Based on stylized evidence showing variation of the Gini coefficient of income inequality across skill cohorts and on the rapid rise in trade in technology-intensive goods, the ripple effects of technology transmission and income inequality are explored in a global Computable General Equilibrium...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264015

Dynamic Gains From Trade; Evidence From South Africa

Subramanian, Arvind; Jonsson, Gunnar - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000

This paper examines the empirical relationship between trade and total factor productivity (TFP) in South Africa. It uses (i) a time series approach where trade is defined in terms of aggregate outcomes, i.e., as the share of imports plus exports in GDP, and (ii) a cross sectional approach,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264046

Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter

Mauro, Paolo; Becker, Törbjörn I. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

Output drops are usually associated with major disruption for the residents of affected countries, both directly and often through ensuing, prolonged growth slowdowns. Using a century of data, we document that output drops are more frequent in countries at a lower stage of economic development....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264108

Growth in the Dominican Republic and Haiti; Why Has the Grass Been Greeneronone Side of Hispaniola

Jaramillo, Laura; Sancak, Cemile - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

The Dominican Republic and Haiti share the island of Hispaniola and are broadly similar in terms of geography and historical institutions, yet their growth performance has diverged remarkably. The countries had the same per capita real GDP in 1960 but, by 2005, the Dominican Republic's per...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264171

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