Sharp exchange rate depreciations in the East Asian crisis countries (Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand) raised doubts about the efficacy of increasing interest rates to defend the currency. Using a standard monetary model of exchange rate determination, this paper shows that tighter monetary...

We characterize a country's exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such...

This paper characterizes exchange market pressure as a nonlinear Markov-switching phenomenon, and examines its dynamics in response to money growth and inflation over three regimes. The empirical results identify episodes of exchange market pressure in the Kyrgyz Republic and confirm the...

We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking...

This paper analyzes monetary policy in transition. It examines the dynamics of monetary policy in Mongolia using granger-causality tests for monetary variables and inflation. The paper also analyzes money demand using data from 22 Mongolian regions during 1993-1998. The analyses confirm the key...

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...

A New Keynesian model estimated for India yields valuable insights. Aggregate demand reacts to interest rate changes with a lag of at least three quarters, with inflation taking seven quarters to respond. Inflation is inertial and persistent when it sets in, irrespective of the source. Exchange...

This paper studies the role of central bank communication of its economic assessment in shaping inflation dynamics. Imperfect information about the central bank's assessment - or the basis for monetary policy decisions - could complicate the private sector's learning about its policy response...

We show that, in a monetary equilibrium, trade and asset prices depend on both the supply of the liquidity by the Central Bank and the liquidity of assets and commodities. As a result, monetary aggregates are informative for the conduct of monetary policy. We also show asset prices are higher in...

This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors...