This paper examines the impact of productivity shocks on real exchange rate fluctuations in a dynamic international general equilibrium model with nontraded goods. The model predicts a close association between relative technology shocks and bilateral real exchange rate movements. Empirical...

In this paper, I survey the issue of exchange rate regime choice from the perspective of both the industrial and emerging economies taking an historical perspective. I first survey the theoretical issues beginning with a taxonomy of regimes. I then examine the empirical evidence on the...

This paper characterizes exchange market pressure as a nonlinear Markov-switching phenomenon, and examines its dynamics in response to money growth and inflation over three regimes. The empirical results identify episodes of exchange market pressure in the Kyrgyz Republic and confirm the...

Modifications to Japan's monetary policy framework will be needed as positive inflation resumes because the current monetary regime and operations are tailored to ending deflation. The paper suggests that the monetary regime should move from an "anti-deflation" objective to an inflation...

Using data on long-term interest rates for 17 industrial countries, this paper develops some simple measures of monetary policy credibility and then tests if such measures improve the out-of-sample forecasts of conventional models of the inflation-unemployment process. The results provide some...

This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments,...

This paper revisits the usefulness of econometric monetary analysis in low-income countries in a case study on Rwanda, an interesting case given its floating exchange rate and reliance on indirect monetary policy instruments on the one hand, and its somewhat typical data and institutional...

Some recent studies suggest the possibility of estimating a stable aggregate demand-for-money relationship for the group of countries participating in the European Monetary System. These results are of particular relevance in connection with the task of setting policy targets for a European...

This paper takes stock of the evolution of the international monetary system over the last thousand years. Several points stand out from the analysis. One is the reluctance of governments to embrace radical changes in international monetary relations. Another is the conflict between external and...

This paper evaluates whether Georgia is ready to adopt inflation targeting (IT), a monetary policy framework that several emerging markets have adopted recently. After reviewing selected prerequisites for successfully implementing IT, the paper focuses on whether one specific precondition is in...