. Large second-round effects stem from several factors, such as the high share of food in household expenditure and the role …

, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary …

This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing …-track, it provides a closer link to the factors that have influenced the evolution of IMF credit outstanding. The analysis uses …

We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content … also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in beating a random walk in out-of-sample prediction. …

sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages …

from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate … turn affected by the exchange rate. The theoretical models considered all generate results that are consistent with the … the exchange rate change lengthens. Another common feature of the models is that the true reduced-form equation for …