This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively...

This paper examines the relative importance of external shocks as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Mexico, and identifies the dynamic responses of domestic output to foreign disturbances. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that U.S. shocks explain a large...

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

This article uses two analytical methodologies to understand the dynamics of inflation in Paraguay, the mark-up theory of inflation and the monetary theory of inflation. We also study the impact of different monetary aggregates. The results suggest that monetary factors, in particular currency...

The aim of this paper is to construct a comprehensive and consistent dataset to analyze the potential risks from foreign bank lending, for both the creditor and borrower countries of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESE). We develop a picture of bank claims on 13 CESE countries by...