We construct a high-frequency dataset that combines information on all IMF lending and proxies of monthly economic activity during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-21). Using this novel dataset and standard econometric techniques we find a positive and significant marginal...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. SUDDEN STOPS AND MULTILATERAL INSURANCE -- III. CAPITAL FLOWS AND SUDDEN STOPS -- IV. IMF-SUPPORTED PROGRAMS -- V. MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS -- VI. IMF-SUPPORTED PROGRAMS AND SUDDEN STOPS -- VII. EXTENSIONS -- VIII. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS -- Appendix...

We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit...

We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit...

We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate's long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious 'buffer stock' model of optimal consumption in the presence...

Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. METHODOLOGY AND DATA -- III. DYNAMIC FACTORS AND EPISODES OF BUSINESS CYCLES -- IV. SOURCES OF BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS: 1960-2005 -- V. GLOBALIZATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES -- VI. SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS -- VII. CONCLUSION --...

The degree of an economy's monetization, which has an important implication on economic growth, can be affected by the conduct of monetary policy, financial sector reform, and episodes of financial crises. The paper finds that monetization--measured by the ratio of broad money to nominal GDP--...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. EVOLUTION OF SOVEREIGN DEBT LEVELS -- A. Evolution of Debt Levels in the Immediate Post-Crisis Period -- B. Evidence on Debt Reversals -- C. External Debt versus Domestic Debt -- III. CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF SOVEREIGN DEBT -- A. External Public...