We characterize a country's exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such...

In this paper, I survey the issue of exchange rate regime choice from the perspective of both the industrial and emerging economies taking an historical perspective. I first survey the theoretical issues beginning with a taxonomy of regimes. I then examine the empirical evidence on the...

This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and an array of broader grouping among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Model simulations suggest that (i) participating in the CMA benefits all members; (ii)...

Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both...

This paper offers a coherent empirical analysis of the determinants of the real exchange rate, the current account, and the net foreign assets position in low income countries. The paper focuses on indicators specific to low income countries, such as the quality of policies and institutions, the...

The paper lays out an analytical framework for understanding crises in emerging markets based on examination of stock variables in the aggregate balance sheet of a country and the balance sheets of its main sectors (assets and liabilities). It focuses on the risks created by maturity, currency,...

This paper evaluates several indicators of external vulnerability and estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Costa Rica. While current indicators are mostly positive, declining market shares of domestic exports, the expected decline in foreign direct investment, and the desirability of...

This paper shows that the quality of banks within each country is one of the important factors that can account for the fact that developing economies tend to suffer more severe output contractions in the wake of a currency crisis than more mature economies. In particular, countries with a...

This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exchange rates in the region. Second, a fundamentals-based equilibrium real exchange...

Recent turbulence in global and Caribbean regional financial markets underscore the importance of reassessing the adequacy of international reserves held by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB). Using the Jeanne (2007) optimization framework, this paper finds that international reserves...