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U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations
Ugazio, Giovanni - 2024
decomposing U.S. interest rates changes into two orthogonal shocks: the pure monetary policy shock and the information news shock … countries, with oil exporters with stronger fundamentals withstanding well the shock and oil importers with weaker fundamentals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015058845
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Fiscal foresight and information flows
Leeper, Eric M.; Walker, Todd B.; Yang, Shu-Chun S. - 2012
News - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618558
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The Return of Expansionary Austerity: Firms' Investment Response to Fiscal Adjustments in Emerging Markets
Magud, Nicolas - 2022
multiplier effect), it quickly rises above pre-shock levels. The rebound in investment is facilitated by fiscal space, flexible … investment contractions on impact, but drive private investment to above pre-shock levels. Finally, we exploit firm … sector and in larger and less indebted firms, and to show that the long-run benefits to economic activity of the fiscal shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015060537
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Estimating Macro-Fiscal Effects of Climate Shocks From Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations
Akyapi, Berkay - 2022
A growing literature estimates the macroeconomic effect of weather using variations in annual country-level averages of temperature and precipitation. However, averages may not reveal the effects of extreme events that occur at a higher time frequency or higher spatial resolution. To address...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015060207
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The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations
Chang, Yoosoon - 2022
In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which influence the expected inflation distribution through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015060289
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Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy.
Cashin, Paul - 2012
economicconsequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic …-2008 -- Figures -- 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations -- 2. Impact of Oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012690166
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Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Global Shocks in CEMAC
Tiedemann, Johanna - 2024
As in the rest of the world, inflation in CEMAC surged more quickly and persistently than expected during the 2021-23 period. This paper examines the drivers of inflation dynamics and the contribution of global shocks to inflation persistence in CEMAC. We use a Phillips curve framework combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015058603
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Monetary Policy Transmission through Commodity Prices
Miranda-Pinto, Jorge - 2023
Monetary policy influences inflation dynamics by exerting impact on a diverse array of commodity prices. At high frequencies, we show that a 10 basis points increase in US monetary policy rate reduces commodity prices between 0.5% and 2.5%, after 18 to 24 business days. Beyond the dollar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059018
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Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts
Adams, Jonathan - 2023
shock and to further decompose each one into "news" and "surprise" shocks. We estimate a VAR on US time series using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059043
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Measuring the Stances of Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Vitek, Francis - 2023
We derive measures of the stances of monetary and fiscal policy within the framework of an empirically plausible extension of the basic New Keynesian model, and jointly estimate them for the United States using a closed form multivariate linear filter. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059505