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This paper uses text analysis to construct a continuous financial stress index (FSI) for 110 countries over each …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015058994
Index number theory informs us that if data on matched prices and quantities are available, a superlative index number … formula is best to aggregate heterogeneous items, and a unit value index to aggregate homogeneous ones. The formulas can give … as to why such formulas differ and proposes a solution to this index number problem …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677703
Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. HEDONIC INDEXES -- III. WHY HEDONIC IMPUTATION AND DUMMY TIME HEDONIC INDEXES DIFFER -- IV. CHOICE BETWEEN HEDONIC INDEXES AND DUMMY TIME HEDONIC INDEXES -- V. CONCLUSIONS -- References.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691089
coincident indicator provides a reliable measure of the GCC business cycle; over the last decade, the GCC coincident index and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677760
The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677494
This paper gauges the key determinants of China's private consumption in relation to GDP using data on the Chinese economy and evidence from other countries' experiences. The results suggest there is nothing ""special"" about consumption in China. Rather, the challenge is to explain why the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677619
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691015
Many central banks and government agencies use nowcasting techniques to obtain policy relevant information about the business cycle. Existing nowcasting methods, however, have two critical shortcomings for this purpose. First, in contrast to machine-learning models, they do not provide much if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059646
We construct a financial vulnerability indicator that is consistent with the theoretical literature on determinants of defaults. It is based on the amount of new foreign financing that is needed to avoid a default or an import adjustment, expressed as a proportion of the country's sources of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768797
Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768990