We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent … with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun … coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various …

Since the global financial crisis, corporate investment has been weak in India. Sluggish corporate investment would not …, this paper analyzes the reasons for the slowdown and discusses how India can boost corporate investment, using both macro … investment but that they do not appear to account fully for recent weak performance, suggesting a key role of the bu …

We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a ""store … investment, or a ""volatility trap."" Namely, big savers invest relatively little. In contrast, low volatility of permanent … shocks leads to low precautionary saving and high or low investment, depending on the volatility of temporary shocks …

Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness of China's current investment levels. It finds …, partly due to a surge in investment over the last decade. Moreover, its investment is significantly higher than suggested by …

Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector … estate investment in China though a low-probability event would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of China … and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China's real estate investment would shave about 0 …

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. TRENDS IN REGIONAL INVESTMENT6 -- III. LITERATURE REVIEW -- IV. A BASIC … INVESTMENT MODEL -- V. DATA -- VI. ESTIMATION ISSUES -- VII. ESTIMATION RESULTS -- VIII. CONCLUSIONS -- References -- Data …

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE PARADOX: LOW GROWTH AND HIGH INVESTMENT -- III. THE MISMEASUREMENT …