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Khan, Mohsin S - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691177

Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth

Aiyar, Shekhar - 2008

's largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677605

Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

Beyer, Robert - 2022

This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015060380

Political Institutions and Output Collapses

Imam, Patrick - 2023

Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data, we classify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions. We then model the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059959

The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited; The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?

Berg, Andrew; Miao, Yanliang - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010

There is good reason and much evidence to suggest that the real exchange rate matters for economic growth, but why? The "Washington Consensus" (WC) view holds that real exchange rate misalignment implies macroeconomic imbalances that are themselves bad for growth. In contrast, Rodrik (2008)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008519476

Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System

Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs …). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman … issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825693

Do Trading Partners Still Matter for Nigeria's Growth? A Contribution to the Debate on Decoupling and Spillovers

Obiora, Kingsley I. - 2009

these questions for Nigeria in the context of the global crisis. The results seem to debunk the ""decoupling theory"" and … suggest there are still significant spillovers from Nigeria's main trading partners, including the US, with trade and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677490

Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty; Is Africa Different?

Tsangarides, Charalambos G. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It employs a novel methodology that incorporates a dynamic panel estimator, and Bayesian Model Averaging to explicitly account for model uncertainty. The findings indicate that:...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264072

Benchmark Priors Revisited:on Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging

Feldkircher, Martin; Zeugner, Stefan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009

Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008559278

Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth; A Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation

Townsend, Robert M.; Ueda, Kenichi - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

We propose a coherent unified approach to the study of the linkages among economic growth, financial structure, and inequality, bringing together disparate theoretical and empirical literature. That is, we show how to conduct model-based quantitative research on transitional paths. With...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825597

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