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We investigate the impact of remittances on public debt sustainability and detail how the traditional debt-to-GDP ratio … can be modified to create a more accurate representation of debt sustainability for a country that receives significant … remittance inflows. The main result is that inclusion of remittances into the traditional debt sustainability analysis alters the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677866
This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt … Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012689867
The paper takes stock of the debate on the positive link between output volatility and the size of government-which reflects automatic stabilizers. After a survey of the literature, we show that the contribution of automatic stabilizers to output stability may have disappeared since the 1990s....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014409031
This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015060462
News - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618558
We derive measures of the stances of monetary and fiscal policy within the framework of an empirically plausible extension of the basic New Keynesian model, and jointly estimate them for the United States using a closed form multivariate linear filter. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059505
The paper takes stock of the debate on the positive link between output volatility and the size of government-which reflects automatic stabilizers. After a survey of the literature, we show that the contribution of automatic stabilizers to output stability may have disappeared since the 1990s....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677598
Implementation of fiscal consolidation by advanced economies in coming years needs to take into account the short and long-run interactions between economic growth and fiscal policy. Many countries must reduce high public debt to GDP ratios that penalize longterm growth. However, fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009615787
The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012690163
Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. KEY FEATURES OF THE GLOBAL FISCAL MODEL -- III. CALIBRATING THE MODEL -- IV. THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT DEBT -- V. GOVERNMENT SPENDING SHOCKS AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION -- VI. TAX DISTORTIONS AND THE BENEFITS OF TAX REFORM -- VII. THE EFFECTS...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691006