Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and bank profitability. Using data on 145 banks in 11 oil-exporting MENA countries for 1994-2008, we test hypotheses of direct and indirect effects of oil price shocks on bank profitability. Our results indicate that oil price shocks...

Intro -- Content -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. OIL PRICE VOLATILITY -- III. THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF CRUDE OIL -- IV. ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY IN THE OIL MARKETS -- V. SOLUTION OF THE SEM -- VI. CONCLUSIONS -- APPENDIX -- REFERENCES.

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

This paper studies the historical importance of OPEC for oil price fluctuations. An event-study approach is used to identify the effects of OPEC announcements on oil price fluctuations. Results show that price volatility is higher than typical around OPEC meetings. Also, members' compliance, a...

By definition, fiscal dominance impedes the effective implementation of any monetary strategy aimed at controlling inflation. Economies that exhibit oil dominance-a situation in which oil exports largely affect the main macroeconomic indicators-may also exhibit fiscal dominance. However, in this...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY IN LATIN AMERICA: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE -- III. ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC POLICIES -- IV. WHAT'S NEW THIS TIME AROUND? -- V. REMAINING AGENDA -- VI. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- REFERENCES.

We introduce a new comprehensive announcement-level database tracking the extraordinary fiscal, monetary, prudential, and other policies that countries adopted in response to Covid-19. The database provides detailed information, including sizes where available, for 28 granular policies adopted...

Over many years rises and fall of world oil prices have been repeatedly reflected in the boom-bust cycles in oil-exporting countries the world over. The recent spectacular rise and equally spectacular fall in prices provides an opportunity to inquire whether anything is different this time. In...