Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. DESCRIPTION OF THE INDICATOR -- III. MODEL DESCRIPTION -- IV. DATA DESCRIPTION -- V. FACTOR ANALYSIS: ESTIMATION RESULTS -- VI. COMPUTATION OF THE PROBABILITIES OF DEFAULT -- VII. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS -- VIII. STRESS TESTING -- IX. CONCLUDING REMARKS...

Fintech payments leverage large digital platforms to fill gaps in the traditional payment system. They have made great strides in increasing access to payment services in several countries around the globe. At the same time, like any innovation, the new payment models are exposed to risks in...

The paper proposes a framework for examining the process of financial market development. The framework, consistent with the functional view of financial system design, is anchored in studying the incentives facing the key players in financial markets-borrowers, lenders, liquidity providers, and...

The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative has called for the IMF to develop standard measures of tail risk, which we identify in this paper with systemic risk. To understand the conditions under which tail risk is present, it is first necessary to develop a measure of what constitutes a systemic stress, or...

Financial network analysis is used to provide firm level bottom-up holistic visualizations of interconnections of financial obligations in global OTC derivatives markets. This helps to identify Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries (SIFIs), analyse the nature of contagion propagation,...

Over the last decade, stress testing has become a central aspect of the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance work. Recently, more emphasis has also been placed on the role of insurance for financial stability analysis. This paper reviews the current state of system-wide solvency...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. A BRIEF PRIMER ON COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS -- III. DEFAULT PROBABILITY AND DEFAULT CORRELATION, IN STCDOS -- IV. IDIOSYNCRATIC AND SYSTEMIC RISK IN STCDO TRANCHES -- V. DATA AND EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK -- VI. RESULTS -- VII. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.

Many empirical studies of banking crises have employed ""banking crisis"" (BC) indicators constructedusing primarily information on government actions undertaken in response to bank distress. Weformulate a simple theoretical model of a banking industry which we use to identify and...

This paper examines several key global market conditions, such as a proxy for market uncertainty and measures of interbank funding stress, to assess financial volatility and the likelihood of crisis. Using Markov regime-switching techniques, it shows that the Lehman Brothers failure was a...

This paper presents a new database on the timing of systemic banking crises and policy responses to resolve them. The database covers the universe of systemic banking crises for the period 1970-2007, with detailed data on crisis containment and resolution policies for 42 crisis episodes, and...