When inflation originates from distributional conflicts, shifts in inflation expectations, or energy price shocks …, monetary policy (MP) is a costly stabilization instrument. We show that a tax on inflation policy (TIP), which would require … decisions, tackle excessive inflation and reduce output volatility, without exacerbating price distortions. While proposals from …

This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline … inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market … information. Focusing on core inflation forecast errors in 2021, four factors provide a potential ex post explanation: a stronger …

The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper … constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass …, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most …

In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers' forecasts and … surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its …'s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to …

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the … pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a …

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the … projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evolution. This involves … goodness-of-fit criteria, with an equilibrium-correction model that pins down the convergence of core inflation to its longer …

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs …). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman … issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …