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China's Impacton World Commodity Markets
Roache, Shaun K. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
Shocks to aggregate activity in China have a significant and persistent short-run impact on the price of oil and some base metals. In contrast, shocks to apparent commodity-specific consumption (in part reflecting inventory demand) have no effect on commodity prices. China’s impact on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142150
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What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?
Roache, Shaun K. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
The macroeconomic effects of large food price swings can be broad and far-reaching, including the balance of payments of importers and exporters, budgets, inflation, and poverty. For market participants and policymakers, managing low frequency volatility—i.e., the component of volatility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008560434
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Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels; Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices
Pant, Malika; Mühleisen, Martin; Thomas, Alun H. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008646422
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External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico; How Important Are U.S. Factors?
Sosa, Sebastian - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
This paper examines the relative importance of external shocks as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Mexico, and identifies the dynamic responses of domestic output to foreign disturbances. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that U.S. shocks explain a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825765
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Decoupling From the East toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2009
This paper uses VAR models to examine the magnitude and sources of growth spillovers to the Baltics from key trading …-country spillovers to the Baltics with those from the EU outweighing spillovers from Russia. Shocks to the REER generally depress growth … of spillovers to the region which partly explains the realization of downside risks to the Baltics from the global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528644
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The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles
Cashin, Paul; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United … States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf … Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790399
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Spillovers in the Nordic Countries
Mircheva, Borislava; Muir, Dirk - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
as some exposure to Russia. Using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we examine spillovers … oil prices. We show that the spillovers from these scenarios differ in magnitude and impact, regardless of the high degree …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242239
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Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries
Wu, Yiqun; Tumbarello, Patrizia; Sheridan, Niamh - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
over the last two decades. PICs have become more exposed to the region’s business cycles, and spillovers from regional …, we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for each PIC to gauge the impact of global and regional growth spillovers … even larger than from a negative global demand shock. We also assess the spillovers to the financial sector from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142036
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Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area
Kriljenko, Jorge Iván Canales; Gwenhamo, Farayi; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
Spillovers from South Africa into the other members of the Souther Africa Customs Union (known as the BLNS for … group. Nevertheless, vector autoregressions, which allow country-specific parameters, suggest some strong spillovers onto …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142106
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Do Trading Partners Still Matter for Nigeria's Growth? A Contribution to the Debateon Decoupling and Spillovers
Obiora, Kingsley I. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
suggest there are still significant spillovers from Nigeria's main trading partners, including the US, with trade and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008559275