Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE BASIC MODEL SETTING -- III. MODEL 1: A SIMPLE MODEL WITH NON-RANDOM DEFAULT PROBABILITIES -- IV. INTRODUCING THE POISSON APPROXIMATION -- V. MODEL 2: THE MODEL WITH KNOWN PROBABILITIES REVISITED -- VI. MODEL 3: THE MODEL WITH RANDOM DEFAULT...

We estimate the role of (pre-Ukraine war) supply disruptions in constraining the Covid-19 pandemic recovery, for several advanced economies and emerging markets, and globally. We rely on two approaches. In the first approach, we use sign-restricted Vector Auto Regressions (SVAR) to identify...

Why do many households remain exposed to large exogenous sources of non-systematic income risk? We use a series of randomized field experiments in rural India to test the importance of price and non-price factors in the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product. Demand is...

For a sample of 83 financial institutions during 2003-2011, this paper attempts to answer three questions: first, what is the evolution of banks' stock price exposure to country-level and global risk factors as approximated by equity indices; second, which bank-specific characteristics explain...

This paper investigates macroprudential policy effects on bank systemic risk and the role of inflation targeting in such effects. Using bank-level data for 45 countries comprising various monetary and exchange rate regimes, our regime-dependent dynamic panel regression results point to...

Intro -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. LONG- TERM SYSTEMIC RISKS -- III. INNOVATIONS IN RISK TRANSFER MARKETS -- IV. INCOMPLETE MARKETS -- V. POLICY CONSIDERATIONS -- VI. CONCLUSIONS -- References.

Failures in the crypto space-including the fall of Terra USD and the FTX debacle-have sparked calls for strengthening countries' policy frameworks for crypto assets, including by enhanced regulation and supervision. How have these heightened concerns about crypto assets been picked up in...

This paper evaluates the global economic consequences of physical climate risks under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5) using firm-level evidence. Firstly, we estimate the historical sectoral productivity changes from chronic climate risks (gradual changes in...

Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)...

We study the pass-through of labor costs to prices using a novel data-set that links industry-level wages to sectoral consumer prices through input-output tables. Pass-through increased during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery, temporarily in goods and persistently in services. Our analysis...