The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research. Using a 5-region version of the GIMF, this paper illustrates the model’s...

Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles...

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. VOLATILITY AND PREDICTABILITY OF AID: WHAT EXACTLY IS THE ISSUE? -- III. DATA AND MEASUREMENT ISSUES -- IV. MEASURING THE VARIABILITY OF AID: THREE APPROACHES -- V. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- REFERENCES.

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INTEREST RATES AND BUSINESS CYCLES -- III. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY MODEL WITH THE FINANCIAL ACCELERATOR -- IV. THE EFFECTS OF A 1 PERCENT U.S. INTEREST RATE HIKE -- V. A REPEAT OF THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET ROUT OF 1994? -- VI. WHAT ROLE FOR MONETARY POLICY? --...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY IN LATIN AMERICA: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE -- III. ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC POLICIES -- IV. WHAT'S NEW THIS TIME AROUND? -- V. REMAINING AGENDA -- VI. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- REFERENCES.

We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit...

This paper examines the behavior of bank soundness indicators during episodes of brisk loan growth, using bank-level data for central and eastern Europe and controlling for the feedback effect of credit growth on bank soundness. No evidence is found that rapid loan expansion has weakened banks...

This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity, it finds government expenditures to be slightly more procyclical in sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing...