This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY -- II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET -- III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS -- IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE -- VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED? -- VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY -- VIII. REVISIONS FROM...

We propose a method to identify the anticipated components of macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR. We include empirical forecasts about each time series in the VAR. This introduces enough linear restrictions to identify each structural shock and to further decompose each one into "news" and...

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within...

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. TAXONOMY OF UNDERLYING INFLATION INDICATORS -- III. FEATURES OF THE INDICATORS -- IV. FORECASTING METHODOLOGY AND ASSESSMENT OF FORECASTING PERFORMANCE -- V. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- References.

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. MONETARY POLICY ANALYSIS AT THE IMF -- III. MACROECONOMIC MODELING -- IV. BUILDING THE MODEL -- V. FORECASTING AND POLICY ANALYSIS46 -- VI. AN EXAMPLE -- VII. CAVEATS AND FUTURE WORK -- VIII. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC -- III. SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES -- IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION -- V. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- References -- Appendix. Further Empirical Results.

Since the global financial crisis, corporate investment has been weak in India. Sluggish corporate investment would not only moderate growth from the demand side but also constrain growth from the supply side over time. Against this background, this paper analyzes the reasons for the slowdown...