Showing 1 - 10 of 361
Although negative shocks have persistent effects on output on average, this paper shows that macroeconomic policies and the structure of the economy can influence the speed of recovery and mitigate the persistence of the shock. Indeed, monetary and fiscal stimulus and foreign aid can spur a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677840
Sweden represents an archetypal welfare state economy, with extensive government safety nets. Some scholars have attributed a decline in its per capita income ranking since 1970 to "eurosclerosis" or sluggish growth caused by distortionary policies. This paper argues rather, that the permanent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605036
Using unobserved stochastic components and Kalman filter techniques, the paper assesses the relative importance of transitory and permanent shifts in Italian real GDP within a production function framework. Evidence suggests that the increase in hours worked that has accompanied pension and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605077
The crisis has intensified what was previously a chronic unemployment problem in Europe; youth unemployment is now at … unprecedented highs in some European countries. This paper assesses the main drivers of youth unemployment in Europe. It finds that … much of the increase in youth unemployment rates during the crisis can be explained by output dynamics and the greater …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011144606
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142066
The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825681
German unemployment insurance system and resulted in a significant reduction in unemployment benefits for the long …-term unemployed. In this paper, we use an incomplete-market model with search unemployment to evaluate the macro-economic and welfare …-run (noncyclical) unemployment rate in Germany by 1.4 percentage points. We also find that the welfare of employed households increases …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790434
unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the … forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cyclical factors-real GDP changes (?Okun‘s Law?), monetary and … dispersion of industry-level stock returns, account for the remaining 25 percent. For U.S. long-term unemployment the split …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009019575
.C from 1991 to 2008, we present econometric evidence that supports that changes in state-level unemployment rates are linked … causality going from mismatches and housing conditions to unemployment rates. The numerical estimates imply that the structural … unemployment rate in 2010 was about 1¾ percentage points higher than before the onset of the housing market meltdown at end-2006 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009019607
percent increase in OECD unemployment, even after controlling for declines in OECD consumption and output gaps. Arrivals to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839340